NOAA: 60% chance of above-normal hurricane season

Casey Dawson
August 10, 2017

NOAA forecasters are predicting a higher chance of an above-normal season and more named storms, according to the most recent update Wednesday.

Dr. Gerry Bell, the NOAA lead hurricane season forecaster, said that previous outlooks verify 70% of the time. Five to nine hurricanes are still expected, but the number of major hurricanes called for is now two to five (it was two to four).

All the available prediction models are pointing to a more active season than they did in May, Bell added, urging people in the region to prepare emergency kits and supplies.

Tropical storm Franklin is set to crash into eastern Mexico's oil-producing Gulf state of Veracruz as the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2017.

Tropical activity will increase as we approach the peak of hurricane season, September 10th, when storms are most frequent and strongest.

A more active than normal hurricane season is expected in the Atlantic.

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These factors increase their predictions for named storms and major hurricanes. An estimated $28.3 trillion worth of homes, businesses and infrastructure is vulnerable to hurricane strikes in the 18 U.S. Atlantic coastal states, according to the Insurance Information Institute in NY.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami upgraded the storm to a hurricane late Wednesday afternoon.

The average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Two of those made landfall in the United States as tropical storms: Cindy on June 22 in Louisiana and Texas, and Emily on July 31 in Florida. The numbers include the six storms that already occurred.

After landfall, Franklin will slowly dissipate over east-central Mexico bringing heavy bouts of rain and potential flooding.

Scientists say there is a 60% chance of an above-average season to continue through the end of November, up from the initial projection of 45% in May.

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